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In short, five-sigma corresponds to a p-value, or probability, of 3x10 -7or about 1 in iq option forex. This is not the probability that the Higgs boson does or doesn t exist; rather, it is the probability that if the particle iq option forex not exist, the data that CERN scientists collected in Geneva, Switzerland, would be at least as extreme as what they observed. The reason that it s so annoying is that people want to hear declarative statements, like The probability that there s a Higgs is 99.
9 percent, but the real statement has an if in there. There s a conditional. There s no way to remove the conditional, says Kyle Cranmer, a physicist at New York University and member of the ATLAS team, one of the two groups that announced the new particle results in Geneva on July 4. Scientists use p-values to test the likelihood of hypotheses. In an experiment comparing some phenomenon A to phenomenon B, researchers construct two hypotheses that A and B are not correlated, which is known as the null hypothesis, and that A and B are correlated, which is known as the research hypothesis.
The researchers then assume the null hypothesis because it s the most conservative supposition, intellectually and calculate the probability of obtaining data as extreme or more extreme than what they observed, given that there is no relationship between A and B. If the p-value is low, for example 0. 01, this means that there is only a small chance one percent for p 0. This calculation, which yields the p-value, can be based on any of several different statistical tests. 01 that the data would have been observed by chance without the correlation.
Usually there is a pre-established threshold in a field of study for rejecting the null hypothesis and claiming that A and B are correlated. Values of p 0. 01 are very common in many scientific disciplines. High-energy physics requires even lower p-values to announce evidence or discoveries. The threshold for evidence of a particle, corresponds to p 0.
003, and the standard for discovery is p 0. The reason for such stringent standards is that several three-sigma events have later turned out to be statistical anomalies, and physicists are loath to declare discovery and later find out that the result was just a blip. One factor is the look elsewhere effect when analyzing very wide energy intervals, it is likely that you will see a statistically improbable event at some particular energy level. As a concrete example, there is just under a one percent chance of flipping an ordinary coin 100 times and getting at least 66 heads.
So where do the sigmas come in. But if a thousand people flip identical coins 100 times each, it becomes likely that a few people will get at least 66 heads each; one of those events on its own should not be interpreted as evidence that the coins were somehow rigged. The Greek letter sigma is used to represent standard deviation. Standard deviation measures the distribution of data points around a mean, or average, and can be thought of as how wide the distribution of points or values is.
A sample with a high standard deviation is more spread out it has more variability, and a sample with a low standard deviation clusters more tightly around the mean. For example, a plot of dogs heights would probably have a larger standard deviation than a plot of heights of dogs from a particular breed, even if that breed had the same average height as dogs in general.
For particle physics, the sigma used is the standard deviation arising from a normal distribution of data, familiar to us as a bell curve. In a perfect bell curve, 68 of the data is within one standard deviation of the mean, 95 is within two, and so on. In the case of the results announced last week, the process was more complicated than simply taking the results from one experiment and measuring the deviation of the data from the expected background levels; data came from many different channels, and each one had a different expected background signal.
In addition, there were uncertainties about the measurements from the detectors that had to be taken into account. Researchers used a complex formula to combine all of these variables and calculate a p-value. This value was then translated into a number of sigmas above the mean, because the number of collisions observed at the energy of the newly discovered particle was higher than the expected background. This final point led to some confusion in the media about the p-value associated with five-sigma.
In a normal distribution, data is symmetrically distributed on both sides of the mean. It is twice as likely for data to be in either the high or low tail than just the high tail, so some outlets reported that five-sigma corresponded to a p-value of 0. 0000006, or 1 in 1. 7 million, rather than the correct value of 0. 0000003, or 1 in 3. For further discussion of this subtlety, see this Understanding Uncertainty blog post. The excitement about the Higgs discovery led the two teams to announce their results before all the data had been analyzed.
Going forward, after both teams analyses are complete, the groups will combine their observations. If your wallet were filled with both U. Although the two experiments are based on similar physical principles, it is not trivial to combine their data in a meaningful way. dollars and Euros or Swiss Francs if you were visiting CERNyou couldn t simply add the numbers on the bills to find out how much money you had; you would have to perform some conversions first.
The groups will use what Cranmer calls collaborative statistical modeling to combine the results of the two experiments ATLAS and CMS. This approach has already been used to perform conversions on data sets within each team s experiment. When complete, these analyses will convey a more accurate sense of the strength of the new evidence and determine whether the observed data is consistent with the Higgs boson physicists seek. Evelyn Lamb. Evelyn Lamb is a freelance math and science writer based in Salt Lake City, Utah.
One Weird Trick to Make Calculus More Beautiful Proving a Legendary Mathematician Wrong When Rational Points Are Few and Far Between. 12 hours ago Glenn Branch and Ann Reid Opinion. 15 hours ago Scott Hershberger. By Michael Moyer on July 17, 2012 1. Mosquito Guts Implanted with GMO Malaria Assassins. Moss Sperm Smells Sweet Enough for Sex. By Katherine Harmon on July 18, 2012 2. Chances are, you heard this month about the discovery of a tiny fundamental physics particle that may be the long-sought Higgs boson.
11 hours ago Glenn Branch and Ann Reid Opinion. 14 hours ago Scott Hershberger. Emotionen Warum handeln Sie mit dem Demokonto anders als mit dem echten. 6 investment options for the retired. For retirees, making the best use of their retirement corpus that would help keep tax liability at bay and provide a regular stream of income is of prime importance. Retirement means the end of earning period for many, unless one chooses to work as a consultant.
Building a retirement portfolio with a mix of fixed income and market-linked investments remains a big challenge for many retirees. The challenge is not to outlive the retirement funds - one retires at 58 or 60, while the life expectancy could be 80. The idea is to build a retirement portfolio with a mix of these products. Here are few investment options for the retired to provide for their monthly household expenses. Probably the first choice of most retirees, the Senior Citizens Saving Scheme SCSS is a must-have in their investment portfolios.
As the name suggests, the scheme is available only to senior citizens or early retirees. Early retirees can invest in SCSS, provided they do so within one month of receiving their retirement funds. Currently, the interest rate in SCSS is 8. 6 per cent per annum, payable quarterly and fully taxable. The rates are set each quarter and linked to the G-sec rates with a spread of 100 basis points.
Once invested, the rates remain fixed for the entire tenure. Currently, SCSS offers the highest post-tax returns among all comparable fixed income taxable products. The upper investment limit is Rs 15 lakh and one may open more than one account. The capital invested and the interest payout, which is assured, has sovereign guarantee. What s more, investment in SCSS is eligible for tax benefits under Section 80C and the scheme also allows premature withdrawals.
Post Office Monthly Income Scheme POMIS Account POMIS is a five-year investment with a maximum cap of Rs 9 lakh under joint ownership and Rs 4. 5 lakh under single ownership. The interest rate is set each quarter and is currently at 7. 8 per cent per annum, payable monthly. The investment in POMIS doesn t qualify for any tax benefit and the interest is fully taxable. Instead of going to the post office each month, the interest can be directly credited to the savings account of the same post office.
Also, one may provide the mandate to automatically transfer the interest from the savings account into a recurring deposit in the same post office. Bank fixed deposits FDs A bank fixed deposits FD is another popular choice with the retirees. The safety and fixed returns go well with the retirees, and the ease of operation makes it a reliable avenue. However, interest rate over the last few years has been falling. Currently, it stands at around 7.
25 per cent per annum for tenures ranging from 1-10 years. Senior citizens get an extra 0. 5 per cent per annum, depending on the bank. Few banks offer around 7. 75 per cent to seniors on deposits with longer tenure. Unlike SCSS and POMIS, bank deposits provide flexibility in terms of tenure. Therefore, instead of locking funds for a particular duration, an investor may spread the amount across different maturities through laddering. It not only provides liquidity to funds, but also manages the re-investment risk.
When the shortest-term FD matures, renew it for the longest duration and continue the process as and when various FDs get matured. While doing so, ensure that your regular income need is met, and deposits are spread across various maturities and institutions. For those looking to save tax, the five-year tax saving bank FD could be a better option.
The iq option forex made here qualifies for Section 80C tax benefit. However, such a deposit will have a lock-in of five years and early withdrawal is not possible. Even though the interest income is taxable, there is a set-off by the amount of tax saved at least in the year of investment. Most banks offer a rate which is slightly lower than the non-tax saver deposit rates.
So choose carefully, if you want to go for them. Mutual funds MFs When one retires and there is a likelihood of the non-earning period extending for another two decades or more, then investing a portion of the retirement funds in equity-backed products assumes importance. Remember, retirement income through interest, dividends, etc.
will be subject to inflation even during the retired years. Studies have shown that equities deliver higher inflation-adjusted returns than other assets. Depending on the risk profile, one may allocate a certain percentage into equity mutual funds MFs with further diversification across large-cap and balanced funds with some exposure even in monthly income plans MIPs. Retirees would be advised to stay away from thematic and sectoral funds, including mid- and small-caps.
The idea is to generate stable returns rather than focus on high but volatile returns. Debt MFs can also be a part of a retiree s portfolio. Taxation of debt funds makes it a better choice over bank deposits, especially for those in the highest tax bracket. While interest on bank deposits is fully taxable as per the tax bracket 30. 9 per cent for highest slabincome from debt funds gets taxed at 20 per cent after indexation, if held for three years or more irrespective of the tax bracket.
A retiree can consider keeping a significant portion in debt funds also because of its easy liquidity. Tax-free bonds Tax-free bonds, although not currently available in the primary market, can also iq option forex in a retiree s portfolio. They are issued primarily by government-backed institutions such as Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd IRFCPower Finance Corporation Ltd PFCNational Highways Authority of India NHAIHousing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd HUDCORural Electrification Corporation Ltd RECNTPC Ltd and Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, and most carry the highest safety ratings.
One may, however, buy and sell them on stock exchanges as they are listed securities. Retirees should keep a note of a few things before investing in tax-free bonds. One, they are long-term investments and mature after 10, 15, 20 years. Invest in them only if you are sure that you will not require the funds for such a long period. Second, the interest is tax-free therefore there is no Tax Deducted at Source TDS too. In the last two tax-free bond issues the effective yield, especially for high tax-bracket investors, compared favourably with taxable investment alternatives available at the same time.
Third, liquidity is low in tax-free bonds. Usually, they are listed on stock exchanges to provide an exit route to investors but price and volume quoted at exchanges may play a spoilsport while off-loading them. Last, they usually offer annual and not monthly interest payouts hence may not meet a retiree s regular income requirement.
For example, in a declining interest rate scenario, a tax-free bond face value Rs 1,000 with a coupon rate of 8. 3 per cent tax free return may be available in a stock exchange at a price of Rs 1,217, with a yield of about 6. 4 per cent, maturing in 2027 if the investor holds it till maturity. Remember, the interest payouts are at the coupon rate of the bond, i.an investor gets 8. 3 per cent tax free income on his investment and the actual return will be 6.
4 per cent if the bonds are held till maturity. Immediate annuities Retirees could also consider the immediate annuity schemes of life insurance companies. The pension or the annuity is currently around 5-6 per cent per annum and is entirely taxable. There is, however, no provision of return of capital to the investor, i. There are about 7-10 different pension options, including pension for lifetime for self, after death to spouse and post that the return of corpus to heirs.
The corpus is not returned to the investor under any pension option. The immediate annuity may not suit an investor who is capable of selecting and building his own portfolio. This is also advisable as the returns offered on these immediate annuities are currently on the low side. Post Office Monthly Income Scheme Senior Citizens Saving Scheme bank fixed deposits Immediate annuities tax-free bonds investment news mutual funds investment Tax.the corpus or the amount used to purchase annuity is non-returnable.
So it is better to diversify across different investments rather than invest in this scheme if you have the wherewithal to manage your own portfolio. When it comes to HDTV, more is better. Many people have moved away from standard-definition analog TVs in favor of high-definition HDwhich refers to iq option forex of 720p, 1080i, and 1080p. HDTVs offer a 16 9 aspect ratio, which is similar to a movie theater screen, and available with higher-resolution screens, which impress with their clarity, color, and detail.
Resolution is HDTV s biggest selling point. We compared 720p, 1080i, and 1080p to help you make the best choice for your TV viewing pleasure. The 1080p has all but replaced 1080i. You can still find TVs with 1080i screens, but they re less common. Overall Findings. 720p 1080i 1080p 1280 pixels x 720 pixels. 1920 pixels x 1080 lines. 1920 x 1080 pixels. Progressive scan Draws all pixels at once. Interlaced Split into two groups of 540 lines each. The three HDTV resolutions are 720p, 1080i, and 1080p.
The number stands for the number of horizontal lines that create the image, and the letter describes the type of scan used by the TV to display the picture progressive or interlaced. Resolution matters because more lines mean a better picture. This is a similar concept to digital photos and how dots-per-inch determines print quality.
1080i and 1080p are higher resolutions than 720, but they aren t the same. You should go for 1080p because of the more efficient way it projects images onto the screen. Screen Resolution Bigger Is Better. 720p 1080i 1080p 720 horizontal lines. 1080 horizontal lines. Progressive scan.
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